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  • benjaminnewman01

Mod. 5.3 - If...Then...Then.... (Extrapolating into the Unknown)

The power of signals in helping you imagine plausible/preferable futures is amplified by your ability to extrapolate (in futurist vernacular) First, Second, and Third order effects from the signals/clusters that interest you. In other words, ask questions like "If (X) grows, what else (Y) might happen? And if Y happens, what Z might that lead to?" Continue using this line of questioning until you have a distinct and compelling narrative.

Here are a couple of ways to help you extrapolate your signals into storylines about emerging future(s):

  • Use the ASCENDS set of prompts by Jay Whittaker (Technique 4) to add more context and texture to any of the clusters you developed in Activity 5.2 that you find particularly interesting.

  • Use the 2-Curve View and your Focal Question(s) to shape storylines of transformation from your clusters (See pg.25-28 Forecasting Two Curves in the IFTF Foresight Toolkit).

On Your Own... Add an "Extrapolations" section to your team’s Signals Gallery to save the work from your various extrapolation activities. Be sure to label and annotate the thought process behind your story-lining as much as possible as these notes will come in handy later.

Update your team’s Signals Gallery Deck that you’ve built over the previous two assignments with an "Extrapolations" section so I can track your progress and provide feedback as necessary.

 

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